Evaluating soybean yield responses to future climate change and irrigation regimes: a DSSAT multi-model assessment

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dc.contributor.authorBaydar, Alper
dc.contributor.authorColak, Yesim Bozkurt
dc.contributor.authorOzfidaner, Mete
dc.contributor.authorGurkan, Hudaverdi
dc.contributor.authorGonen, Engin
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-19T06:37:55Z
dc.date.available2026-06-19T06:37:55Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.departmentMalatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractIntroduction Climate change is expected to intensify temperature and precipitation variability in Mediterranean regions, creating uncertainty for soybean production.Methods In this study, the DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model was run with three global climate models under two emission pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) across three future time periods: near-future (2016-2040), mid-century (2041-2070), and late-century (2071-2098). Bias correction significantly enhanced the reliability of climate inputs by reducing systematic temperature deviations and improving agreement with observed meteorological conditions. The model was calibrated and validated using observed phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass, and yield across three irrigation treatments (I100, I70, and I50).Results The model showed good correspondence between observed and simulated values. Taylor diagram analysis revealed correlation coefficients generally exceeding 0.95, coefficients of determination (R & sup2;) ranging from 0.74 to 0.99, and acceptable RMSD values across treatments. Future projections indicated that yield responses varied across future periods and irrigation conditions. Under late-century conditions, RCP 8.5 produced higher yields than RCP 4.5 by approximately 4-17% under irrigated conditions and 6-20% under rainfed conditions across the considered GCMs.Discussion Elevated CO2 partly mitigated the effects of warming; however, seasonal soil water availability remained the primary constraint on yield. The results demonstrated that the calibrated DSSAT-CROPGRO-Soybean model provides a reliable basis for predicting the adverse effects of future climatic conditions on soybean production, while multi-GCM climate projections indicated that the magnitude of these effects may vary substantially depending on emission scenario, projection period, and water availability.
dc.description.sponsorshipGeneral Directorate of Agricultural Research and Policy [TAGEM/TSKAD/T1/23/A11/P3/6417]
dc.description.sponsorshipThe author(s) declared that financial support was received for this work and/or its publication. This research was funded by the General Directorate of Agricultural Research and Policy. Project No: TAGEM/TSKAD/T1/23/A11/P3/6417.
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fpls.2026.1811299
dc.identifier.issn1664-462X
dc.identifier.pmid41971558
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105039065252
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/A
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2026.1811299
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/5288
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001736430900001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherFrontiers Media Sa
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Plant Science
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260612
dc.subjectClimate Change
dc.subjectDssat
dc.subjectGlobal Climate Model
dc.subjectIrrigation
dc.subjectSoybean Yield
dc.subjectCrop Simulation Model
dc.titleEvaluating soybean yield responses to future climate change and irrigation regimes: a DSSAT multi-model assessment
dc.typeArticle

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