Examining the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Stock Market Index: Analysis by Nonlinear ARDL Method for G7 Countries

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dc.contributor.authorFendoglu, Eda
dc.contributor.authorPolat, Mehmet Ali
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-19T06:38:07Z
dc.date.available2026-06-19T06:38:07Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentMalatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractUncertainties are important factors that influence the decisions made by societies. Economic uncertainties closely affect society's consumption and investment behaviour. Rising stock markets increase investors' confidence, resulting in more purchases and higher stock prices and, in this context, an increase in consumer spending. When stock prices decrease, company investments are also negatively affected as consumer spending declines. Thus, increases and decreases in stock prices affect the general economy as they affect business confidence and consumers. The study analyses the effect of uncertainty in economic policies on stock markets, leading to a decrease in investor confidence in the economy. Such effects in G7 countries were examined using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1998:M05-2020:M09. This method was able to capture symmetries and asymmetries in the relationship between economic policy uncertainties and the stock markets. The results showed that heightened un- certainty in economic policy in Japan has a significantly negative effect on the stock market index, but in Germany and Italy, it has a significantly positive effect. Rising interest rates have negatively affected the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The increase in the industrial production index is positively related to the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and France. Additionally, uncertainties in economic policy have asymmetric impacts on the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan and Italy, and symmetrical impacts in Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
dc.identifier.doi10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-1-23
dc.identifier.endpage346
dc.identifier.issn2072-6414
dc.identifier.issn2411-1406
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4092-7137
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85190115923
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage336
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-1-23
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/5403
dc.identifier.volume20
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001195867100021
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRussian Acad Sciences, Ural Branch, Inst Economics
dc.relation.ispartofEconomy of Region
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260612
dc.subject7 Developed Economies (G7)
dc.subjectInvestor
dc.subjectInterest Rates
dc.subjectIndustrial Production Indices
dc.subjectStock Exchange
dc.subjectEconomic Policy Uncertainty
dc.subjectNonlinear Ardl
dc.titleExamining the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Stock Market Index: Analysis by Nonlinear ARDL Method for G7 Countries
dc.typeArticle

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