Forecasting Model to Predict the Spreading of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey

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dc.contributor.authorKıran,Tuğba Raika
dc.contributor.authorBereketoglu, Ceyhun
dc.contributor.authorOzcan, Nermin
dc.contributor.authorYola, Mehmet Lutfi
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-07T12:48:47Z
dc.date.available2022-06-07T12:48:47Z
dc.date.issued2021en_US
dc.departmentMTÖ Üniversitesi, Tıp Fakültesi, Temel Tıp Bilimleri Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study aimed to forecast the future of the COVID-19 outbreak parameters such as spreading, case fatality, and case recovery values based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Turkey. We first performed different forecasting methods including Facebook’s Prophet, ARIMA and Decision Tree. Based on the metrics of MAPE and MAE, Facebook’s Prophet has the most effective forecasting model. Then, using Facebook’s Prophet, we generated a forecast model for the evolution of outbreak in Turkey fifteen-days-ahead. Based on the reported confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the total number of infected people could reach 4328083 (with lower and upper bounds of 3854261 and 4888611, respectively) by April 23, 2021. Simulation forecast shows that death toll could reach 35656 with lower and upper bounds of 34806 and 36246, respectively. Besides, our findings suggest that although more than 86.38% growth in recovered cases might be possible, the future active cases will also significantly increase compared to the current active cases. This time series analysis indicates an increase trend of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey in the near future. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of an efficient data-driven forecast model analysis for the simulation of the pandemic transmission and hence for further implementation of essential interventions for COVID-19 outbreak.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTürkiye'de COVID-19 Salgınının Yayılımını Öngörmek İçin Tahmin Modeli Ceyhun BEREKETOĞLU, Nermin ÖZCAN, Tuğba Raika KIRAN, Mehmet Lütfi YOLA Akıllı Sistemler ve Uygulamaları Dergisi (Journal of Intelligent Systems with Applications) 2021; 4(2): 95-102. DOI: 10.54856/jiswa.202112165en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.54856/jiswa.202112165
dc.identifier.endpage102en_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.startpage95en_US
dc.identifier.uri10.54856/jiswa.202112165
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/1106
dc.identifier.volume4en_US
dc.institutionauthorKıran, Tuğba Raika
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofAkıllı Sistemler ve Uygulamaları Dergisen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectforecastingen_US
dc.subjectFacebook’s Propheten_US
dc.subjectTurkish populatioen_US
dc.subjectinterventionen_US
dc.titleForecasting Model to Predict the Spreading of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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