Forecasting Model to Predict the Spreading of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2021
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study aimed to forecast the future of the COVID-19 outbreak parameters such as spreading, case fatality, and case recovery values based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Turkey. We first performed different forecasting methods including Facebook’s Prophet, ARIMA and Decision Tree. Based on the metrics of MAPE and MAE, Facebook’s Prophet has the most effective forecasting model. Then, using Facebook’s Prophet, we generated a forecast model for the evolution of outbreak in Turkey fifteen-days-ahead. Based on the reported confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the total number of infected people could reach 4328083 (with lower and upper bounds of 3854261 and 4888611, respectively) by April 23, 2021. Simulation forecast shows that death toll could reach 35656 with lower and upper bounds of 34806 and 36246, respectively. Besides, our findings suggest that although more than 86.38% growth in recovered cases might be possible, the future active cases will also significantly increase compared to the current active cases. This time series analysis indicates an increase trend of the COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey in the near future. Altogether, the present study highlights the importance of an efficient data-driven forecast model analysis for the simulation of the pandemic transmission and hence for further implementation of essential interventions for COVID-19 outbreak.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
COVID-19, forecasting, Facebook’s Prophet, Turkish populatio, intervention
Kaynak
Akıllı Sistemler ve Uygulamaları Dergis
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
4
Sayı
2
Künye
Türkiye'de COVID-19 Salgınının Yayılımını Öngörmek İçin Tahmin Modeli
Ceyhun BEREKETOĞLU, Nermin ÖZCAN, Tuğba Raika KIRAN, Mehmet Lütfi YOLA
Akıllı Sistemler ve Uygulamaları Dergisi (Journal of Intelligent Systems with Applications) 2021; 4(2): 95-102. DOI: 10.54856/jiswa.202112165
