Covid-19 Salgın Hastalığının Borsaya Etkisi: Turizm Ve Ulaştırma Endeksleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İnönü Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Milyonlarca kişiye kısa sürede bulaşan Covid-19 virüsü yüzbinlerce insanın ölümüne yol açmıştır. Dünya devletlerinin bir kısmı salgına karşı sınırları kapatmak, sokağa çıkma yasağı uygulamak, insanların toplanabileceği alanları kapatmak gibi sert önlemler alırken, bir kısım devletler ise bu konuda daha esnek davranmıştır. Salgın süresince birçok işyeri alınan önlemler sonucu kapanırken binlerce kişi de işsiz kalmıştır. Bu durum ekonomik bir durgunluk yaşanacağı beklentisini yükseltmiştir. Covid-19 Salgını, sağlık, gıda gibi bazı sektörlerin önemini arttırırken turizm, ulaşım gibi sektörlerin de değerini düşürmüştür. Turizm sektörü savaş, terör, doğal afet, salgın hastalık ve ekonomik kriz dönemlerinde insanlar için zorunlu bir tüketim olmaması sebebiyle en çok etkilenen sektörlerden biri olmuştur. Ulaştırma sektörü ise insanların sokağa çıkma yasağı uygulamalarından veya ülkelerarası/şehirlerarası seyahat kısıtlamalarından dolayı en çok etkilenen sektörlerden bir diğeri olmuştur. Bu çalışmada Covid-19’un ölüm ve vaka sayıları ile salgının en fazla etkilediği turizm ve ulaştırma sektörleri özelinde borsa endeksleri arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Analizde, piyasa günlerinin açık olduğu hafta içi günlerine denk gelen 2 Mart 2020 ve 17 Temmuz 2020 tarihleri arasındaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Covid-19 hastalığının etkisini temsilen virüs dolayısıyla yaşanan günlük ölüm sayıları ve günlük virüse yakalanan hasta vaka sayıları bağımlı değişkenler olarak alınmıştır. İki ayrı model kurularak salgın ile virüsün etkisi altına aldığı Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksleri ve Ulaştırma Endeksleri bağımsız değişkenler olarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ekonometrik uygulama kısmında, uzun dönemli ilişkiyi test etmek için önce birinci nesil ve ikinci nesil birim kök testleri uygulanmış ardından da ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda salgının vaka sayıları ile endeks serileri arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilemezken, salgındaki ölüm sayıları ile %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde bağımsız değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olarak birlikte ters yönde hareket ettiği bulunmuştur. Kısa dönemde ise meydana gelen sapmaların yüzde 0.0004’ünün bir sonraki dönemde düzeltilerek uzun dönem dengesine çok düşük bir hızla ulaştığı tespit edilmiştir.
The Covid-19 virus, which infects millions of people in a short period of time, has killed hundreds of thousands of people. While some countries have taken drastic measures against the outbreak, such as closing borders, imposing curfews, closing areas where people can gather, some countries have been softer on this issue. While the number of cases remained low compared to the population in the countries that took measures, this number increased in the countries that acted more loosely. During the outbreak, many businesses closed due to damage, while thousands of people were unemployed. This has raised the expectation that there will be an economic recession. Covid-19 Epidemic, while increasing the importance of some sectors such as health and food, it also reduced the value of sectors such as tourism and transportation. Tourism sector has been one of the most affected sectors due to the absence of compulsory consumption for people in times of war, terrorism, natural disaster, outbreak and economic crisis. On the other hand, the transportation sector has been the other sector most affected by people's curfew enforcement or cross-country and intercity travel restrictions. In this study, the relationship between the number of deaths and cases of Covid-19 and the stock market indices in the tourism and transportation sectors most affected by the outbreak was examined. March 2, 2020 and July 17, 2020 were used in the analysis, which coincides with weekdays when the market is open. Representing the effect of Covid-19 disease, the number of daily deaths due to the virus and the number of cases of patients with the daily virus were taken as dependent variables. Two separate models were established and Borsa Istanbul Tourism Indices and Transport Indices, which were affected by the epidemic and the virus, were examined as independent variables. In the econometric application part of the study, to test the long-term relationship first-generation and second-generation unit root tests were applied and then ARDL Border Test approach was used. As a result of the study, no significant relationship between the number of cases of the outbreak and the index series was determined. In addition, it was found that the number of deaths in the outbreak and the independent variables at the level of 5% significance moved in the opposite direction in the long term. It was determined that 0.0004 percent of deviations occurred in the short period were corrected in the next period and reached the long-term balance at a very low rate.
The Covid-19 virus, which infects millions of people in a short period of time, has killed hundreds of thousands of people. While some countries have taken drastic measures against the outbreak, such as closing borders, imposing curfews, closing areas where people can gather, some countries have been softer on this issue. While the number of cases remained low compared to the population in the countries that took measures, this number increased in the countries that acted more loosely. During the outbreak, many businesses closed due to damage, while thousands of people were unemployed. This has raised the expectation that there will be an economic recession. Covid-19 Epidemic, while increasing the importance of some sectors such as health and food, it also reduced the value of sectors such as tourism and transportation. Tourism sector has been one of the most affected sectors due to the absence of compulsory consumption for people in times of war, terrorism, natural disaster, outbreak and economic crisis. On the other hand, the transportation sector has been the other sector most affected by people's curfew enforcement or cross-country and intercity travel restrictions. In this study, the relationship between the number of deaths and cases of Covid-19 and the stock market indices in the tourism and transportation sectors most affected by the outbreak was examined. March 2, 2020 and July 17, 2020 were used in the analysis, which coincides with weekdays when the market is open. Representing the effect of Covid-19 disease, the number of daily deaths due to the virus and the number of cases of patients with the daily virus were taken as dependent variables. Two separate models were established and Borsa Istanbul Tourism Indices and Transport Indices, which were affected by the epidemic and the virus, were examined as independent variables. In the econometric application part of the study, to test the long-term relationship first-generation and second-generation unit root tests were applied and then ARDL Border Test approach was used. As a result of the study, no significant relationship between the number of cases of the outbreak and the index series was determined. In addition, it was found that the number of deaths in the outbreak and the independent variables at the level of 5% significance moved in the opposite direction in the long term. It was determined that 0.0004 percent of deviations occurred in the short period were corrected in the next period and reached the long-term balance at a very low rate.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Covid-19 Pandemisi, Turizm, Ulaştırma, ARDL, Covid-19 Epidemic, Tourism Sector, Transportation Sector, ARDL
Kaynak
Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
11
Sayı
1
Künye
Hacıevliyagil, N. & Gümüş, A. (2020). Covid-19 Salgın Hastalığının Borsaya Etkisi: Turizm ve Ulaştırma Endeksleri Üzerine bir Uygulama . Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi , 11 (1) , 76-97 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ayd/issue/56831/772209
