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    Flood flow forecasting using ANN, ANFIS and regression models
    (Springer London Ltd, 2014) Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Tabari, H.; Yazdi, A. Arabi; Isik, S.; Kalin, L.
    Flood prediction is an important for the design, planning and management of water resources systems. This study presents the use of artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple nonlinear regression (MNLR) for forecasting maximum daily flow at the outlet of the Khosrow Shirin watershed, located in the Fars Province of Iran. Precipitation data from four meteorological stations were used to develop a multilayer perceptron topology model. Input vectors for simulations included the original precipitation data, an area-weighted average precipitation and antecedent flows with one- and two-day time lags. Performances of the models were evaluated with the RMSE and the R (2). The results showed that the area-weighted precipitation as an input to ANNs and MNLR and the spatially distributed precipitation input to ANFIS and MLR lead to more accurate predictions (e.g., in ANNs up to 2.0 m(3) s(-1) reduction in RMSE). Overall, the MNLR was shown to be superior (R (2) = 0.81 and RMSE = 0.145 m(3) s(-1)) to ANNs, ANFIS and MLR for prediction of maximum daily flow. Furthermore, models including antecedent flow with one- and two-day time lags significantly improve flow prediction. We conclude that nonlinear regression can be applied as a simple method for predicting the maximum daily flow.
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    Nutrient Dynamics in Flooded Wetlands. II: Model Application
    (Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers, 2013) Kalin, L.; Hantush, M. M.; Isik, S.; Yucekaya, A.; Jordan, T.
    In this paper, the authors applied and evaluated the wetland nutrient model that was described in Paper I. Hydrologic and water quality data from a small restored wetland located on Kent Island, Maryland, which is part of the Delmarva Peninsula on the eastern shores of the Chesapeake Bay, was used for this purpose. The model was assessed through various methods against the observed data in simulating nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and total suspended sediment (TSS) dynamics. Time series plots of observed and simulated concentrations and loads generally compared well; better performance was demonstrated with dissolved forms of nitrogen, i.e.,ammonia and nitrate. Through qualitative and quantitative sensitivity analysis, dominant processes in the study wetland were scrutinized. Nitrification, plant uptake, and mineralization were the most important processes affecting ammonia. Denitrification in the sediment layer and diffusion to bottom sediments were identified as key processes for nitrate. Settling and resuspension were the most important processes for particulate matter (organic N, sediment) and sediment-bound phosphate (inorganic P). Order of parameter sensitivities and dominant processes exhibited seasonality. Uncertainty bands created from Monte Carlo simulations showed that parameter uncertainty is relatively small; however, uncertainty in the wetland inflow rates and loading concentrations have much more bearing on model predictive uncertainty. N, P, and TSS mass balance analysis showed that the wetland removed approximately 23, 33, and 46%, respectively, of the incoming load (runoff + atmospheric deposition) over the two-year period, with more removal in year 1 (34, 43, and 55%, respectively), which had a long stretch of a dry period. The developed model can be employed for exploring wetland response to various climatic and input conditions, and for deeper understanding of key processes in wetlands.
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    Regional rating curve models of suspended sediment transport for Turkey
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2013) Isik, S.
    Estimations of annual suspended sediment loads are required for various types of water resources studies. Often estimation of the sediment load is needed for ungauged watersheds. Regionalization methods provide a practical solution to solve such problems. The purpose of this study is to classify suspended sediment yields in watersheds into homogeneous regions in order to identify their regional sediment rating curves. This study has been carried out for suspended sediment stations on 26 main basins of Turkey. Long term-scale suspended sediment rating curves of 115 gauging stations in Turkey were classified using cluster analysis on the basis of hydrological homogeneity. An agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm is used so that stations from different geographical locations are considered in the same cluster independently of their geographical location. 115 gauging stations were clustered into 4 different homogenous regions and the regional suspended sediment rating curve was developed for each region. The performance efficiencies of the developed regional rating curves were evaluated for 8 test stations and compared to the performances of rating curves in test sites. A regionalization model is developed for estimating suspended sediment rating curves for ungauged sites in Turkey. The developed regional rating curve models result in very close performances to those of their corresponding site rating curves.