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    Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Inflation in Turkey: A NARDL Approach
    (2021) Karaoğlu, Nazlı; demirel, baki
    Inflation expectation resulting from the exchange rate increases is one of the widely\rdiscussed topics in the literature. When determining the disinflation policies, it is crucial\rto consider the size and duration of the exchange rate pass-through effect on inflation.\rThe literature findings show that the high level of rises in the exchange rate pass-through\rmuch faster on inflation, especially in dollarized economies with high inflation inertia. On\rthe other hand, it has been revealed that the relationship between exchange rate inflation\ris asymmetrical. The Turkish economy, which struggles with chronicle higher inflation, has\rexperienced an exchange rate crisis in 2018. Therefore, to analyse the effect of exchange\rrate on inflation in Turkey is very important for the effectiveness of the fight against\rinflation and developing a policy proposal in this direction. This study examined the\rasymmetric relationships between exchange rate and inflation using a nonlinear\rautoregressive distributed lag model for 2004:Q1–2019:Q4. Findings indicate that the\rexchange rate pass-through into inflation is asymmetric in Turkey in the long run. 1%\rincrease in the exchange rate increases the annual inflation by 0.11% in the long run,\rwhereas a 1% decrease in the exchange rate decreases inflation by 0.28%. Besides, a\rdecrease in the exchange rate has no statistically significant effect on inflation, but an\rincrease also increases inflation in the short run.