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Analyzing The Effect Of Gold Prices And Exchange Rate On Financial Markets In Turkey Using Quantile Regression Method
(Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi, 2025) Bakan, Merve
The aim of this study is to measure the impact of changes in gold prices and exchange rates in Turkey on the BIST 100 index. For this purpose, monthly data for the period of January 2000- March 2025 and 303 time series were considered and the Quantile regression technique, one of the alternative regression analysis methods, was used. In the analysis, the BIST100 index was used as the dependent variable; gold and exchange rates were used as independent variables. According to the results obtained, a significant and positive relationship was found between gold prices and the BIST100 index at all quantile points; and a negative relationship was found between exchange rates and the BIST100 index. In addition, Granger Causality analysis was applied to determine the direction and causality of the relationship between the variables. As a result of the analysis, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between Gold and BIST 100 index; and a unidirectional causality relationship between foreign exchange rate and BIST 100.