Forecasting Model to Predict the Spreading of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey
Künye
Türkiye'de COVID-19 Salgınının Yayılımını Öngörmek İçin Tahmin Modeli Ceyhun BEREKETOĞLU, Nermin ÖZCAN, Tuğba Raika KIRAN, Mehmet Lütfi YOLA Akıllı Sistemler ve Uygulamaları Dergisi (Journal of Intelligent Systems with Applications) 2021; 4(2): 95-102. DOI: 10.54856/jiswa.202112165Özet
This study aimed to forecast the future of the
COVID-19 outbreak parameters such as spreading, case
fatality, and case recovery values based on the publicly
available epidemiological data for Turkey. We first
performed different forecasting methods including
Facebook’s Prophet, ARIMA and Decision Tree. Based on the
metrics of MAPE and MAE, Facebook’s Prophet has the most
effective forecasting model. Then, using Facebook’s Prophet,
we generated a forecast model for the evolution of outbreak in Turkey fifteen-days-ahead. Based on the
reported confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the
total number of infected people could reach 4328083 (with
lower and upper bounds of 3854261 and 4888611,
respectively) by April 23, 2021. Simulation forecast shows
that death toll could reach 35656 with lower and upper
bounds of 34806 and 36246, respectively. Besides, our findings
suggest that although more than 86.38% growth in recovered
cases might be possible, the future active cases will also
significantly increase compared to the current active cases.
This time series analysis indicates an increase trend of the
COVID-19 outbreak in Turkey in the near future. Altogether,
the present study highlights the importance of an efficient
data-driven forecast model analysis for the simulation of the
pandemic transmission and hence for further implementation
of essential interventions for COVID-19 outbreak.